p202 forecast

{
  "path": "p202 forecast",
  "use": "forecast",
  "short": "Forecast future performance metrics using historical data",
  "long": "Forecast future values for any tracked metric using statistical methods.\n\nFetches historical time-series data from your Prosper202 instance and projects\nit forward using the selected algorithm. Supports linear regression, simple\nand weighted moving averages, damped-trend Holt-Winters exponential smoothing,\nand an ensemble (the default, alias \"auto\") that combines the methods weighted\nby rolling-backtest accuracy and reports each member's share.\n\nWith --seasonal, predictions are modulated by a day-of-week profile learned\nfrom the fetched history itself (re-estimated inside every backtest fold, so\nthe bands describe the profiled forecast) to account for weekly patterns\n(e.g., \"Tuesdays always convert better\"). Requires --interval day or hour.\n\nEvent-aware forecasting (--events, --event-tag) uses stored calendar events and\nrequires --interval day.\n\nDerived metrics (leads, income, cost, net) requested without --seasonal or\n--events are composed from driver forecasts (clicks and the linking rates),\nso leads = clicks x conv_rate, income = leads x avg_payout, and net =\nincome - cost hold exactly; --all-metrics forecasts all core metrics\ntogether this way.\n\nBounds are empirical quantiles from a rolling backtest (meta \"bounds\" names\nthe pair, e.g. p05-p95 (90%)); short histories fall back to Gaussian bounds\n(meta \"bounds_source\"). Short outlier runs such as a tracking outage are\nmasked from fitting and listed in meta \"anomalies_masked\"; a detected level\nshift is reported as \"level_shift_at\" and the new regime is fitted. Use\n--no-anomaly-mask / --no-level-shift to fit the history exactly as-is.\n\nExamples:\n  p202 forecast --metric revenue --horizon 7\n  p202 forecast --metric clicks --history last90 --method linear\n  p202 forecast --metric profit --horizon 14 --method auto --seasonal\n  p202 forecast --all-metrics --horizon 7\n  p202 forecast --metric conv_rate --history last30 --interval week --horizon 4\n  p202 forecast --metric revenue --aff-campaign-id 5 --horizon 7\n  p202 forecast --metric revenue --events --horizon 14\n  p202 forecast --metric clicks --events --event-tag us-holidays\n  p202 forecast --metric clicks --no-anomaly-mask --json",
  "aliases": [
    "predict"
  ],
  "runnable": true,
  "flags": [
    {
      "name": "aff-campaign-id",
      "type": "string",
      "default": "",
      "usage": "Filter by campaign ID",
      "required": false
    },
    {
      "name": "aff-network-id",
      "type": "string",
      "default": "",
      "usage": "Filter by affiliate network ID",
      "required": false
    },
    {
      "name": "all-metrics",
      "type": "bool",
      "default": "false",
      "usage": "Forecast clicks, leads, income, cost, and net together via ratio decomposition (coherent output)",
      "required": false
    },
    {
      "name": "anomaly-cycles",
      "type": "int",
      "default": "4",
      "usage": "Seasonal cycles on each side used as same-weekday/hour references for transient masking",
      "required": false
    },
    {
      "name": "anomaly-sigma",
      "type": "float64",
      "default": "5",
      "usage": "Transient-masking threshold in robust sigma units (lower masks more aggressively)",
      "required": false
    },
    {
      "name": "confidence",
      "type": "float64",
      "default": "0.95",
      "usage": "Confidence level for prediction bounds; snaps to the nearest band: 0.50 (p25-p75), 0.80 (p10-p90), or 0.90 (p05-p95, also used for 0.95/0.99)",
      "required": false
    },
    {
      "name": "country-id",
      "type": "string",
      "default": "",
      "usage": "Filter by country ID",
      "required": false
    },
    {
      "name": "days",
      "type": "string",
      "default": "",
      "usage": "Alias of --history: today, yesterday, last7, last14, last30, last90, thismonth, lastmonth, thisyear, lastyear, alltime",
      "allowed_values": [
        "today",
        "yesterday",
        "last7",
        "last14",
        "last30",
        "last90",
        "thismonth",
        "lastmonth",
        "thisyear",
        "lastyear",
        "alltime"
      ],
      "required": false
    },
    {
      "name": "event-tag",
      "type": "string",
      "default": "",
      "usage": "Filter forecast events by tag (comma-separated, e.g. us-holidays,promos)",
      "required": false
    },
    {
      "name": "events",
      "type": "bool",
      "default": "false",
      "usage": "Enable event-aware forecasting using stored forecast events",
      "required": false
    },
    {
      "name": "history",
      "type": "string",
      "default": "last90",
      "usage": "Historical data period (aliases: --period, --days): today, yesterday, last7, last14, last30, last90, thismonth, lastmonth, thisyear, lastyear, alltime",
      "allowed_values": [
        "today",
        "yesterday",
        "last7",
        "last14",
        "last30",
        "last90",
        "thismonth",
        "lastmonth",
        "thisyear",
        "lastyear",
        "alltime"
      ],
      "required": false
    },
    {
      "name": "horizon",
      "shorthand": "n",
      "type": "int",
      "default": "7",
      "usage": "Number of periods to forecast forward",
      "required": false
    },
    {
      "name": "interval",
      "shorthand": "i",
      "type": "string",
      "default": "day",
      "usage": "Forecast granularity: hour, day, week, month",
      "allowed_values": [
        "hour",
        "day",
        "week",
        "month"
      ],
      "required": false
    },
    {
      "name": "landing-page-id",
      "type": "string",
      "default": "",
      "usage": "Filter by landing page ID",
      "required": false
    },
    {
      "name": "method",
      "type": "string",
      "default": "auto",
      "usage": "Forecasting method (auto = ensemble): linear, sma, wma, holtwinters, ensemble, auto",
      "allowed_values": [
        "linear",
        "sma",
        "wma",
        "holtwinters",
        "ensemble",
        "auto"
      ],
      "required": false
    },
    {
      "name": "metric",
      "shorthand": "m",
      "type": "string",
      "default": "",
      "usage": "Metric to forecast: total_clicks, total_click_throughs, total_leads, total_income, total_cost, total_net, epc, avg_cpc, conv_rate, roi, cpa (aliases: clicks=total_clicks, conversions=total_leads, cost=total_cost, income=total_income, leads=total_leads, net=total_net, profit=total_net, revenue=total_income)",
      "allowed_values": [
        "total_clicks",
        "total_click_throughs",
        "total_leads",
        "total_income",
        "total_cost",
        "total_net",
        "epc",
        "avg_cpc",
        "conv_rate",
        "roi",
        "cpa"
      ],
      "value_aliases": {
        "clicks": "total_clicks",
        "conversions": "total_leads",
        "cost": "total_cost",
        "income": "total_income",
        "leads": "total_leads",
        "net": "total_net",
        "profit": "total_net",
        "revenue": "total_income"
      },
      "required": false
    },
    {
      "name": "no-anomaly-mask",
      "type": "bool",
      "default": "false",
      "usage": "Disable transient masking (fit short outlier runs such as tracking outages as data)",
      "required": false
    },
    {
      "name": "no-level-shift",
      "type": "bool",
      "default": "false",
      "usage": "Disable level-shift detection (fit the full history as-is)",
      "required": false
    },
    {
      "name": "period",
      "type": "string",
      "default": "",
      "usage": "Alias of --history: today, yesterday, last7, last14, last30, last90, thismonth, lastmonth, thisyear, lastyear, alltime",
      "allowed_values": [
        "today",
        "yesterday",
        "last7",
        "last14",
        "last30",
        "last90",
        "thismonth",
        "lastmonth",
        "thisyear",
        "lastyear",
        "alltime"
      ],
      "required": false
    },
    {
      "name": "ppc-account-id",
      "type": "string",
      "default": "",
      "usage": "Filter by PPC account ID",
      "required": false
    },
    {
      "name": "ppc-network-id",
      "type": "string",
      "default": "",
      "usage": "Filter by PPC network ID",
      "required": false
    },
    {
      "name": "seasonal",
      "type": "bool",
      "default": "false",
      "usage": "Apply a day-of-week profile learned from the fetched history (hour interval also gets an hour-of-day profile)",
      "required": false
    },
    {
      "name": "seasonal-monthly",
      "type": "bool",
      "default": "false",
      "usage": "Apply day-of-month seasonal adjustment learned from the fetched series (requires --interval day)",
      "required": false
    },
    {
      "name": "window",
      "type": "int",
      "default": "0",
      "usage": "SMA/WMA window size (0 = auto-select)",
      "required": false
    }
  ]
}